WITH THE CONTRIBUTION OF

Research project for the calibration and validation of models to describe and predict the phenology of Popillia japonica for the delegated phytosanitary tasks of ERSAF

Assignment decree no. 1354 of 10/12/2025

Service for the calibration and validation of models to describe and predict the phenology of P. japonica for the Delegated Phytosanitary Tasks of ERSAF.

Introduction 

Popillia japonica Newman (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) represents one of the most damaging invasive alien species for agriculture and temperate ecosystems. Knowledge of the phenological and demographic dynamics of the species is an essential element for understanding colonization processes, for optimizing monitoring strategies, and for providing scientific support to phytosanitary management.

Executive Summary

The present research project aimed to calibrate and validate a mathematical–phenological model to describe and predict the phenology of Popillia japonica Newman, an invasive species of significant phytosanitary concern. The research activities were fully carried out and included the analysis of extensive historical monitoring datasets from several Italian regions, the development and recalibration of the phenological model, the validation of its predictive performance, and the implementation of a digital platform for disseminating the results. Model calibration was made possible through data provided by the National Technical–Scientific Working Group on P. japonica Newman and led to a significant improvement in the estimation of diapause termination and seasonal biodemographic curves. The resulting model represents a reliable scientific tool to support monitoring activities, intervention planning, and future climate scenario analyses, in service of the phytosanitary tasks delegated to ERSAF.